OPIS Insights

Portland, Oregon, is on track to significantly reshape its fuel market. Under the city’s Renewable Fuel Standard, the minimum blend requirement for renewable diesel is set to increase from today’s 15% to 50% in 2026. This ambitious policy aims to accelerate decarbonization in the transportation sector and position Portland as a leader in clean fuels adoption.

But what does a 50% renewable diesel blend mandate mean for suppliers, traders and end users in the Pacific Northwest fuel market? Let’s break it down.

A Steep Change in Demand

Moving from 15% to 50% renewable diesel blends will drive a surge in demand for renewable fuels. Suppliers will need to secure significantly higher volumes, and blenders will be tasked with navigating credit systems, compliance costs, and price volatility. With renewable diesel still trading at a premium to petroleum-based ULSD, cost dynamics could shift sharply as the mandate takes effect.

Policy Incentives Shape the Market

Oregon’s Clean Fuels Program and Washington’s Clean Fuel Standard both provide compliance credits that help offset higher renewable diesel costs. Portland’s 50% requirement will make these credit systems even more influential in shaping market prices and trading strategies. For obligated parties, monitoring credit markets will become as important as tracking physical supply.

Infrastructure and Supply Considerations

Scaling up renewable diesel use to 50% blends raises logistical and infrastructure challenges. Questions around terminal capacity, storage, and distribution will become increasingly urgent as demand ramps up.

Price Transparency Becomes Critical

To support this market evolution, OPIS is expanding coverage with daily renewable diesel price assessments for Portland and Seattle beginning October 1. These new benchmarks include:

• 100% Renewable Diesel Assessments for Portland (with Oregon CFP credits) and Seattle (with Washington CFS credits), both including 1.7 D4 RINs
• 99% Renewable Diesel Assessments for both markets, excluding added incentives

All assessments will be published as differentials to existing Pacific Northwest diesel coverage and NYMEX ULSD futures, with carbon-intensity–calculated values to help market participants tailor results to the specific CI of their fuel.

The Road to 2026

As Oregon and Washington continue to expand their clean fuels programs, Portland’s 50% renewable blend mandate will redefine fuel economics in the Pacific Northwest. Market participants that prepare early—securing supply, monitoring policy shifts, and leveraging transparent benchmarks—will be best positioned to manage risk and capture opportunity.

Stay informed with OPIS Biofuels Daily, which will feature these new renewable diesel assessments alongside in-depth market analysis.