OPIS Forum: China’s Primary Energy Consumption Forecast to Grow at Slower Rate

China’s primary energy consumption is expected to maintain its growth momentum till around 2040, albeit at a decelerating pace, according to Sinopec Economics and Development Research Institute at the OPIS Energy and Chemicals Forum in Singapore on Wednesday.

Primary energy consumption refers to total demand for coal, crude oil and other petroleum products used in transportation, heating and electricity generation, and as feedstocks for petrochemicals.

The average annual growth of primary energy in China in 2016-2020 stood at 3%, and 4% in 2021-2025, said Fairy Wang, vice president, Sinopec EDRI. Growth for the next five years is expected to fall to 2%, and reach 1% in 2035, she added.

Sinopec EDRI sees the decelerating growth in energy demand over the next decade as driven by an increasing shift toward renewables and electricity.

However, coal still sees some resilient demand in the short term in providing a flexible baseload for renewables and as a feedstock for olefins, Wang noted.

That said, by the end of 2060, coal consumption will account for only 5% of China’s total primary energy consumption, Sinopec EDRI estimates.

China’s total oil demand will plateau in 2027, according to Sinopec EDRI. On the other hand, it sees continued growth in demand for naphtha, LPG and fuel oil as feedstocks for the petrochemical industry.

Newly added ethylene and paraxylene production capacities in China will exceed 27 million metric tons per year and 9.5 million mt/ year, respectively, by 2030, according to the institute’s forecast.

China’s oil demand increased 80,000 bbl per day in 2024 and for 2025 foresees demand increase to 100,000 b/d, according to Sinopec EDRI.

China imported 11.1 million b/d of crude oil in 2024, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows.

–Reporting by Thomas Cho, tcho@opisnet.com; Editing by Mei-Hwen Wong, mwong@opisnet.com